Scenario-based prediction of the transition period from demographic dividend to debt in China
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65746/gpp6Keywords:
demographic dividend; demographic debt; demographic opportunity window; dependency ratioAbstract
The demographic dividend is a research hotspot in demography and economics. Scholars agree that China is in a demographic dividend period with a shrinking opportunity window, but there is no consensus on its duration. This study takes the quantitative demographic dividend as the research object, selects the dependency ratio as the index, uses the 1957 Swedish life table as the demographic standard, analyzes the transformation trend of China’s demographic structure. It shows that China has entered the demographic dividend period, which lasted until 2010, and then the total dependency ratio changed from decline to rise, because of the demographic aging. It predicts that China’s demographic opportunity window will close around 2033, followed by a long-term demographic debt period. This study will help the Chinese government better understand the current crisis of demographic structure transformation and put forward more scientific solutions and policies.
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