The nexus of polytechnic education expansion, economic growth, and unemployment: A two-decade perspective in Nigeria

Abstract

This study explores the dynamic relationship between polytechnic expansion, economic growth, and unemployment in Nigeria from 1999 to 2023 using secondary data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the National Bureau of Statistics. Key macroeconomic variables analyzed include the Number of Polytechnics (NP), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP Growth Rate (GDPGR), and Unemployment Rate (UNER). Descriptive analysis revealed significant growth in polytechnic institutions, alongside persistent unemployment and fluctuating economic performance. The study employed the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test to assess stationarity, followed by a cointegration test and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine both long- and short-run dynamics. The results confirmed a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, with the ARDL bounds test yielding an F-statistic of 15.84, surpassing the critical upper bound. Notably, the Number of Polytechnics (log_NP) exhibited a strong positive long-term effect on GDP growth (p = 0.0014), reinforcing the role of technical education in economic development. The error correction term (−0.4819, p = 0.0457) was negative and significant, indicating that deviations from the long-run path adjust moderately at a speed of 48.2% annually. Granger causality analysis further showed that polytechnic expansion Granger causes GDP growth, though not GDP directly, implying indirect effects through skill development and labor market productivity. These findings underscore the importance of aligning technical education with industry needs and improving the employability of graduates. The study recommends policy strategies focused on curriculum reform, funding support, and institutional-industry collaboration to fully harness the growth potential of polytechnic education in Nigeria.